Gold and silver prices climbed in early US trading on Monday, November 9, as expectations of renewed diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran pushed crude oil prices lower and weakened the US dollar. Easing energy prices also helped reduce inflation concerns ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, giving precious metals additional support.

Spot gold traded near $4,124.74 per ounce, gaining $54.15 or 1.33%, while spot silver rose to approximately $52.759 per ounce, up $0.815 or 1.57%.

The recovery came as investors reassessed the outlook for global energy supplies following comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that further American military strikes against Iran were highly unlikely while negotiations continued. The possibility of a diplomatic settlement encouraged traders to reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil markets.

However, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran confrontation remains, particularly because the Strait of Hormuz continues to face security risks.

Falling Oil Prices Support Precious Metals

Crude oil prices declined on Monday as diplomatic developments raised hopes of reduced disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures fell towards $94.76 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also came under pressure.

Lower oil prices can benefit gold by easing concerns about energy-driven inflation. If inflationary pressures moderate, expectations for further interest rate increases may also weaken, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

The US dollar’s modest decline provided another source of support for precious metals, making dollar-denominated commodities relatively cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

Despite the improvement in market sentiment, a diplomatic breakthrough has not yet been confirmed. Reports of attacks affecting commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz have also highlighted the risks to international energy transportation.

Any progress towards an agreement could further reduce concerns about shipping costs, insurance premiums and oil supply disruptions. However, renewed attacks or a breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the decline in crude prices.

Strong US Jobs Data Keeps Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations Alive

The gains in gold and silver come against a challenging interest rate backdrop.

Friday’s US employment report showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, significantly above market expectations of approximately 65,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate also declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year.

August and September employment figures were revised upwards by a combined 84,000 jobs, providing further evidence of resilience in the US labour market.

The stronger employment figures strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in December to contain inflation.

Interest rate futures indicated an approximately 79% to 81% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed’s December 8-9 policy meeting, compared with around 71% before the jobs report.

US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year yield near 4.87% and the two-year yield around 4.54% in early Monday trading.

Higher interest rates and Treasury yields generally create pressure on gold because investors can earn better returns from interest-bearing assets.

This leaves precious metals caught between two competing forces: easing geopolitical and energy-related inflation concerns on one side, and resilient employment data with expectations of tighter monetary policy on the other.

US Inflation Data Becomes the Next Major Market Trigger

Investors are now turning their attention to Tuesday’s October Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

The data will provide a clearer indication of whether underlying inflation pressures are moderating after September’s increase in consumer prices.

US headline inflation rose 0.6% month-on-month in September and 3.7% over the previous year.

Market participants will closely examine both headline and core inflation figures to assess whether the Federal Reserve has sufficient room to reconsider another rate increase.

A softer-than-expected reading could reduce expectations of further monetary tightening, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower. Such a development could provide additional support for gold and silver.

On the other hand, stronger inflation figures could reinforce the implications of October’s employment report, increasing expectations of another rate hike and putting renewed pressure on precious metals.

The October Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for Friday, November 13. Weekly jobless claims and existing home sales are also among the economic indicators investors will monitor during the week.

Gold and Silver Technical Levels to Watch

Gold’s immediate technical resistance is identified at $4,147.62. A sustained four-hour close above this level could open the way towards $4,200.09, with the broader $4,250 level emerging as another resistance area.

On the downside, initial support stands at $4,088.51, followed by $4,051.45. A break below these levels could bring the $4,000 mark into focus.

For silver, the immediate resistance zone lies between $53.107 and $54.617. A sustained move above the upper boundary could bring $55 into consideration.

The first important support level is $51.153, followed by $49.989. A further decline could expose the $48 level.

These technical levels provide reference points for traders assessing the next potential price movements.

Global Markets Recover as Oil Prices Retreat

The decline in crude oil prices also helped improve sentiment across global equity markets.

Before the US market opening, S&P 500 futures advanced approximately 0.7%, while Dow Jones futures gained around 1%. Nasdaq futures were up about 0.4%.

Asian markets also recorded a recovery. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan rose approximately 2%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained around 3.5%. Taiwan’s benchmark index advanced more than 6%.

European equities moved higher as investors responded to lower energy prices and improving risk appetite.

However, uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence investments, technology-sector regulation and the upcoming US inflation figures continued to influence market sentiment.

For gold and silver, the immediate direction will depend on how these developments interact. Falling oil prices and a weaker dollar are currently providing support, but the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook remains a significant factor.

Tuesday’s inflation report could therefore prove crucial in determining whether the latest recovery in precious metals gains further momentum or faces renewed pressure.

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