India’s economic growth for Q3 FY2024-25 has been estimated at 6.4% by the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation(MoSPI). There has not been much significant growth in the numbers comparing it from the Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 results. The growth rate for 2023-24 was 8.2%, which is comparatively higher than this quarter’s estimate.
Sectoral Performance in First Advance Estimates of FY 2024-25
As per the press release from the MoSPI’s on 7th January 2025, the growth rates of Annual Gross Value Added (GVA) in different sectors, namely, Public Administration, Defence & Other Services, is 15%, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services is 23%, Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting is 17%, Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing is 18%, Mining Quarrying is 2%, Manufacturing is 14%, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services is 2%, Construction is 9%. The sectoral performance of different sectors as Manufacturing and Construction, is gaining momentum, but the services sector remains the primary driver of growth. Agriculture provides stability, but it is expected that further investments in renewable energy and infrastructure will drive growth in the construction and utilities industries.
Projections for FY 2024-25
While, the Union budget is expected to contribute to boosting growth and jobs in the Indian Market, which is set to be announced on February 1, 2025. These estimates will serve as a groundwork for setting fiscal targets and revenue projections. A stable recovery and strong economic activity are indicated by the Q3 FY2024-25 development rate of 6.4%, and the nominal GDP growth is estimated at 10-11%. India is solidifying its position as a major force behind global economic growth, with one of the highest projected growth rates in the world.
Concerns to anticipate
Global Uncertainties: Changes in commodity prices, geopolitical unrest, and the possibility of a global recession can all have an impact on trade.
Interest rates and inflation: To sustain demand, inflation must be kept under control, and monetary policy must be sound.
Job Creation: Providing adequate employment opportunities remains a top priority, particularly for young people.
The Government’s Fiscal Plan and RBI Monetary Policy in Fiscal Year 2024-25
The RBI’s monetary policy will play a key role towards balancing inflation and growth. To sustain medium-term growth, the government is expected to maintain a focus on fiscal prudence while continuing capital investments. Both the Quarterly GDP estimates for the October-December 2024-25 quarter (Q3 FY2024-25) and the Second Advance Estimates of Annual GDP for FY 2024-25 will be released on February 28, 2025.
