In a bold and bullish market prediction, Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman and Co-Founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has forecasted that India’s benchmark stock index, the Sensex, could scale the 1.5 lakh mark by 2030, and potentially double again to touch 3 lakh by 2035.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with ET Markets, Agrawal drew on over four decades of stock market experience and historical data to support his projection. “The Indian stock market has grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 15% over the last 45 years,” he said. “If that trend continues, the Sensex doubling every five years is within reach.”
Power of Compounding and India’s Long-Term Growth
Agrawal’s prediction stems from what he calls the “power of compounding” in equity markets. Recalling his early days as an investor, he noted that the Sensex was around 100 points when he began investing in the 1980s. “Today it’s at 80,000. That’s an 800-fold increase over 45 years, a testament to India’s long-term equity growth.”
He emphasized that investors need to shift their mindset from short-term volatility to long-term wealth creation. “If you want to choose stocks today, think about where the world will be in 2035,” he advised. “Position yourself accordingly.”
Market Expansion Beyond Recognition
According to Agrawal, by 2035, Indian markets will undergo such dramatic transformation that they may become unrecognizable compared to today. “The market will grow so much that you won’t recognize it. We are only in the early stages of financialization and equity participation,” he stated.
He credited India’s flexible and open market structure, macroeconomic fundamentals, and corporate earnings growth for laying the groundwork for this potential surge. Agrawal also pointed out that increased domestic participation, digital inclusion, and economic formalization will be major catalysts in the coming decade.
Investment Strategy: Long-Term Is the Key
Agrawal reiterated the importance of long-term investing, warning against short-term speculation and panic selling. “Retail investors should focus on high-quality businesses and stay invested,” he said. “The magic happens when you let time work on your investments.”
He also stressed the importance of disciplined investing. “If you invest with conviction and allow your investments to grow, compounding does the rest. The index reflects the underlying economy and India’s story is just beginning.”
Raamdeo Agrawal: Not a First-Time Optimist
This isn’t the first time Agrawal has shared bullish long-term views on India’s capital markets. Known for his consistent optimism backed by data-driven insights, he has long advocated for investor education and equity culture in India.
However, he also added a note of caution: market growth won’t be linear. “There will be volatility, global disruptions, and even domestic setbacks. But India’s structural story remains intact. If you can stay invested through the cycles, the rewards can be exponential.”
Analyst Reactions: Cautious Optimism
While some analysts agree with Agrawal’s projection in principle, they also highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability, regulatory consistency, and geopolitical peace in sustaining such ambitious growth. “It’s not impossible,” said a senior equity strategist at a foreign brokerage firm. “But it assumes continued GDP growth above 6%, strong earnings, and a growing investor base.”
Agrawal’s forecast has nonetheless sparked fresh discussions across investment circles and is likely to influence retail and institutional sentiment alike.
